Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 77959.273296 82347.758137 86739.617967 91461.520672 96391.525110 101383.788016 106818.080367
2025-12-21 70640.419467 77313.995250 84182.651338 91770.866502 99909.335108 108366.222591 117808.627761
2025-12-28 66263.708643 74577.963667 83324.985044 93193.600999 103997.809937 115446.533822 128475.173854
2026-01-04 62686.607662 72230.641598 82457.635721 94199.213429 107273.585018 121351.070948 137620.449364
2026-01-11 59557.165905 70062.131513 81501.859357 94837.141945 109905.384948 126354.043786 145615.997335
2026-01-18 56598.569527 67853.219368 80290.396466 94989.038673 111817.764927 130414.612663 152448.308885
2026-01-25 54070.236937 65962.903126 79283.451106 95225.001349 113696.170434 134335.173913 159046.817126
2026-02-01 51637.770253 64041.587285 78111.984563 95149.977269 115112.419919 137647.553731 164892.281104
2026-02-08 49919.832900 62859.471930 77710.015220 95887.231420 117401.404850 141915.114722 171812.512002
2026-02-15 47937.425863 61264.799558 76734.916452 95868.680685 118737.183643 145027.440300 177360.857901
2026-02-22 46840.586572 60676.886316 76904.183313 97164.300931 121592.809067 149901.979386 184979.585484
2026-03-01 45608.367386 59863.428654 76750.250148 98026.842857 123899.319392 154113.065397 191819.487747
2026-03-08 43983.654614 58521.217310 75921.457815 98050.921083 125194.588357 157141.747423 197302.076069
2026-03-15 42601.550763 57430.639478 75357.044660 98360.879535 126811.246360 160546.344771 203247.224990
2026-03-22 41894.733167 57157.575150 75775.910749 99862.493393 129875.184797 165701.874957 211331.267455
2026-03-29 41028.239277 56643.219044 75862.194371 100925.596932 132385.197794 170185.997887 218620.856371
2026-04-05 40035.102173 55927.082543 75661.090405 101600.301576 134394.916280 174053.965265 225170.532024
2026-04-12 38865.370401 54940.070860 75079.239716 101760.950413 135737.597779 177089.315404 230699.994363
2026-04-19 37798.150167 54051.127220 74590.220857 102010.565711 137170.633606 180226.198227 236359.602471
2026-04-26 36643.655127 53008.965390 73869.248322 101931.195739 138162.379094 182800.042704 241319.048581
2026-05-03 35909.944611 52504.890530 73826.823577 102711.104938 140239.752385 186733.283884 247993.411156
2026-05-10 34881.211826 51570.015417 73190.321259 102691.481535 141271.552791 189341.358943 253006.992358
2026-05-17 34462.485781 51451.102701 73619.990608 104061.917920 144098.782097 194232.344030 260930.487461